Monsoon Disaster 2018

Analysis / 2019.04.11

 

Possibilities & Prospects for Kerala.

 

Kerala’s 2018 monsoon disaster consisting of heavy floods across 13 out of 14 districts of the state and several severe landslides on the hilly regions can be seen as part of a series of escalated natural disasters happening around the world at present. Effects of climate change has been harshly felt alike in many parts of the world, at a broader scale, around the same period including the unusually heavy snowfall in the Alps, flooding in Australia and parts of Europe and the Tsunami in Indonesia, to state a few. It has been estimated that around 850 events have been reported around the world in 2018 (Low, 2019) out of which at least 282 are of unusually high magnitude to be classified as natural disasters (Ritchie & Roser, 2019). 

 

The 2018 flooding and landslides in Kerala is frequently listed as one of the most deadliest disasters of the year. The event consisted of 42% heavier rainfall in the region compared to normal seasonal average (HSO, 2018) and a series of 341 landslides reported from 10 districts out of which 143 are from the district of Idukki alone (UNDP et.al., 2018). On the period between 1st and 19th of August, when the event was at its most severe form, the rainfall departure was a staggering 164% above average with the district wise highest departure values shown again in Idukki (92%), followed by Palakkad (73%) (HSO, 2018).

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The state’s infrastructure was the most severely affected sector with an overall share of loss estimated at around 38% of the  total losses and thereby requiring the most funding for reconstruction (around 51%) (UNDP et.al., 2018). These figures clearly demonstrates the lack of proper robust and resilient basic infrastructure around the state. Well-planned, resilient infrastructure could have helped a great deal in faster evacuation and proper sheltering of the affected population and could have considerably reduced the number of casualties from the currently recorded 433 (UNDP et.al., 2018) cases.

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A general lack of medium and long term planning by the authorities and a shortage of awareness towards preparedness for extreme events from the general population were evident during the event. Even after the disaster there remains a popular local consensus that such events will never happen again and hence taking any precautionary actions for the future is simply unnecessary. However, the reality is that climate change predictions do indeed forecast increases in rainfall intensity in Kerala in the years to come (UNDP et.al., 2018) even though floods with similarly high magnitude may not become too frequent. Nonetheless, heavier rainfall can certainly lead to frequent water logging and minor flooding due to increased water inflow as well as sea level rise (UNDP et.al., 2018). This will certainly affect the public and private infrastructure and thereby the economy of the state in the long term if there is no radical change in approaching their planning, implementation and management. 

 

Uncontrolled quarrying, earth moving and land reclamation along with unscientific agricultural practices, especially in the hilly regions, have indisputably increased the severity of flooding and landslides. The CWC report highlights a decrease in the water carrying capacity of Vembanad lake from 2.4BCM (Billion Cubic Meters) to 0.6BCM as a result of land reclamation from the data till 2008 (HSO, 2018) as an example. If the original capacity of the lake was intact it could have contained the discharge from rivers Manimala, Meenachiil, Pamba & Achankoil (1.63 BCM during 2018 floods) that directly reach Vemband lake (HSO, 2018), eliminating the flood in Kuttanad region altogether.

 

Even though environmental guidelines to control indiscriminate land usage exist, their implementation is anything but strict (UNDP et.al., 2018). There is limited expertise in the local administrative levels to overlook and control the environmental impact of developmental activities. The Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) study co-ordinated by UN, ADB, World Bank and the EU in association with the Government of Kerala has put forward many suggestions including mandating environment impact assessment and the formulation of special development control regulations for hills and coastal areas by reviewing the existing planning process and building codes and bylaws for urban and rural areas (UNDP et.al., 2018). Separate guidelines for regions with different geo-climatic characteristics could considerably improve the sustainability and resilience of future developmental activities including restoration of infrastructure and construction of housing units.

 

Putting a clear, state-wide, inclusive land-use practice in place, strictly controlling landscape shifts and hinderance to natural water channels and stipulating permitted activities depending on the topographic conditions, especially the slope gradient, for any developmental activity including housing and agriculture can bring in positive changes in the way we approach the idea of development. The PDNA report suggests re-deployment of available land to maximise its natural ecosystem functions including conservation of paddy fields to be managed as wetlands for ground water recharge, biodiversity conservation, greenhouse gas emission reduction and disaster risk reduction (UNDP et.al., 2018). In order to re-build a truly sustainable future, integrating socio-ecological systems that are non-linear, self-organising and characterised by uncertainty and discontinuities into the planning process is unavoidable (Ahern, 2011). This would result in a  holistic structural plan that is adaptable and evolving with new knowledge attained through continuous monitoring and analysis of policies. Connectivity generates sustainable spatial form (Ahern, 2011) and thereby an integrated approach become also beneficial economically in the long term.

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It should also be noted that the management and follow-up are integral to adapt our planning policies according to any unexpected future needs. A lack of proper co-ordination and management in regulating the dams around Kerala has contributed in intensifying the flood damages even though the effects were only supplementary to those due to actual increase in rainfall. Damages due to increased velocity in water flow from dams when compared to natural flow rates, even during floods, cannot be overlooked as a minor issue. Moreover, lack of regulation and control over developmental activities in and around downstream riverbeds that became drylands after the construction of dams have aggravated the damages to private infrastructure in many places, especially in the hilly regions. It would be advisable to map the valuable natural resources within the jurisdiction of every local body (UNDP et.al., 2018) and create a management plan for protecting them from being converted to be used for construction, as waste dumping yards or even for certain types of agricultural activities depending on the region's geo-climatic nature. Endogenously created knowledge can be exploited as the development base specifically for regions as the drivers of change in each region differ by socio-spatial characteristics (Christopherson et.al., 2010).

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Buildings and built-spaces of the future should follow more sustainable practices by minimising its carbon footprint throughout its construction and operation. Use of locally available materials and local knowledge on geo-climatic design has to be utilised to its best (UNDP et.al., 2018). Physical reconstruction of damaged buildings must take into account “the hazards of the particular location, resources and capacities of people involved in the rebuilding, and the adoption of designs that offer resilience against floods, cyclones, earthquakes, and drought” (UNDP et.al., 2018). Although it is beneficial to look for case studies elsewhere around the world as a standard practice, implementing them as such without properly adapting to the conditions of Kerala can lead to greater failures in the future. Acknowledging the narrow width of the state, sandwiched between the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, and the resulting steep gradient of Kerala’s topography (1500m to -2m from MSL in a span of 80-100km, creating an average runoff co-efficient of 0.75-0.8 (HSO, 2018) depending on the region) that induces strong lateral water movement and landslides along with the vertical rising of flood-water during heavy monsoons, for example, might demand designing rigid structural systems for buildings to resist both upward water pressure and lateral bending. This steep slope and a very high population density of close to 900 people per square kilometres should be serious considerations while planning for re-building Kerala.

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The lack of an accurate and uninterrupted database on the historic and current condition of the physical features and climatic shifts of the state is a major hinderance in proposing future policies. In order to find possible local and regional solutions, a complete mapping of Kerala’s topographic features, including natural and built objects, has to be made using a combination of layered satellite imagery (to an accuracy of at least 0.5m) and thorough on site inspections to start with. This database can further be utilised as the base for drafting an integrated landuse plan and a holistic developmental policy. Kerala, as a society, has to move beyond its habit of taking short-term solutions and a long term action has to be implemented in the form of preparing the right databases and instituting a continuous management structure to tackle such issues in the future.

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References​​

1. Ahern, J.F. (2011). From fail-safe to safe-to-fail: Sustainability & Resilience in the new urban world. Landscape Architecture & Regional Planning Graduate Research & Creative Activity, 100.

2. Christopherson, s.; Michie, J. & Tyler, P. (2010). Regional Resilience: Theoretical & Empirical Perspectives. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy & Society, 3(1). p.3-10

3. HSO (2018), Study Report: Kerala Floods of August 2018. New Delhi: Central Water Commission, GoI

4. Low, P. (2019). The Natural Disasters of 2018 in Figures. MunichRE.com. Retrieved from: https://www.munichre.com/topics-online/en/climate-change-and-natural-disasters/natural-disasters/the-natural-disasters-of-2018-in-figures.html

5. Ritchie, H. & Roser, M. (2019). Natural Disasters. OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters

6. UNDP, et.al. (2018) Kerala Post-Disaster Needs Assessment: Floods & Landslides August 2018 - Executive Summary. Thiruvananthapuram: GoK